The Week in Deregulation: Who Won, Who Lost, and the Idea Scorecard
A ranked look at the week's seven deregulation moves, who won and lost, how the six FMR stock Ideas have done since entry, and the dated catalysts ahead.
Seven rules moved this week and six stocks came with them. Only one of the six is up since I wrote it down. I think that is the most honest thing I can show you on a Friday, and I would rather show it than bury it.
Key Highlights
- The count: Seven FMR articles ran from October 10 through October 16, 2026, and six of them carried a stock Idea. The EPA piece did not.
- The scoreboard: Equal-weighted, the six Ideas stand at -2.6% since each logged entry price, with ICE the only gainer at +3.4%.1
- The biggest rule: The CFTC put sports, politics and weather event contracts inside the swap definition and carved casino-style bets out, both on October 9.
- The cleanest number: The SEC puts the savings from reviving bond-fund cross trades at $173,018,571 a year, and calls that a lower bound.
- Next week: Robinhood opens shareholder questions on October 20 and Blackstone reports on October 22.2
The week, ranked
I ranked these by how much they change who can do what, not by how loud the headline was. You may rank them differently. Tell me where I am wrong.
1. The CFTC wrote the line between a market and a house
On October 9 the agency issued two documents. One proposes that event contracts on sports, politics, culture and weather are swaps. The other, an interim final rule, says casino-style gambling is not. Winners: federally registered exchanges, and Robinhood, which booked $156 million of event-contract revenue in the second quarter. Losers: anyone hoping a sportsbook wager can pass as a derivative. The part I keep chewing on is the referee. CFTC staffing ended 2025 at 21% below its ten-year average, so the line is only as good as the people drawing it. I made the full case in The CFTC Just Wrote the Line Between a Market and a House.
2. The SEC wants bond funds to skip the dealer
The proposal reopens Rule 17a-7 so sister funds can trade fixed income with each other again. Average quarterly corporate-bond cross trades fell about 86% after the 2020 valuation rule switched the practice off by accident. Winners: fund shareholders, who stop paying a spread to a middleman, and pricing vendors, which become the referee. Losers: dealers, and the public price tape, because cross trades print nothing. I like the rule and I think it is half a reform. Read The SEC Wants to Let Bond Funds Skip the Dealer Toll Booth for the missing half.
3. The SEC let brokers put a target return in writing
On October 15 the SEC approved FINRA's fourth exception to Rule 2210. A broker may now communicate projected performance or targeted returns. The price: FINRA's final text dropped three express guardrails, including whether a projection is net of fees. Winners: sponsors and the brokers who sell for them. Losers: the reader who sees a gross number and cannot find the footnote. FINRA says this is not meant for a mass retail audience. I will believe that when I see the first brochure. The detail is in The SEC Just Let Brokers Put a Target Return in Writing.
4. FERC told PJM you cannot curtail your way out of a shortage
FERC rejected most of PJM's large-load plan, including the curtail-first service for new data centers. PJM's last capacity auction cleared 6,831 MW short of the reliability requirement at the $325 cap, and an uncapped simulation put the price near $554.72 per MW-day. Winners: private contracts, such as the 890 MW nuclear uprate deal between Google and Constellation. Losers: a plan that would have switched off the newest customer first and called the result a market. My argument is in FERC Told PJM You Cannot Curtail Your Way Out of a Shortage.
5. The EPA is days from killing its own methane leak watchdog
Administrator Zeldin said on October 7 that the second part of the oil and gas reconsideration is days away, and that it will rescind the Super Emitter Program. EPA attributes $18 billion in costs to the 2024 rule and says the proposal saves $45 billion. Winners: marginal-well operators. Losers: the satellite that can see a leak from orbit. I want fewer rules, and I still would not kill the one that works on information. As of Friday I did not find the proposal published, and EPA's own timeline for it says October. The piece is The EPA Is Days From Killing Its Own Methane Leak Watchdog.
6. A judge said engine cleaner is not fuel, and the CPSC agreed
The agency said fuel additives are not flammable liquid fuels under the Portable Fuel Container Safety Act, so their bottles need no flame mitigation device. CPSC puts the avoided cost at $545.7 million a year. It took a federal court ruling in September 2025 and thirteen months to get there. Winners: Sea Foam's maker and every small company that reads a statute. Loser: regulation by letter. Details sit in A Judge Said Engine Cleaner Is Not Fuel. The CPSC Just Agreed.
7. The FDA wrote salt into 139 recipes, then said you may swap it
The final rule lets makers use salt substitutes in 139 standards of identity. It takes effect December 14 and compliance is voluntary.3 Winners: manufacturers who wanted lower-sodium products, and the ingredient suppliers behind them. Loser: the idea that a government should write your sandwich. It is the smallest rule of the week and the easiest to love. See The FDA Wrote Salt Into 139 Food Recipes. Now You May Swap It.
The Idea Scorecard
Every Idea gets a ticker, an entry price and a thesis, and then it has to live in public. Here is where all six stand at the close on Friday.
| Ticker | Idea date | Entry price | Close Oct 16 | Change | Thesis status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ICE | Oct 11 | $156.19 | $161.56 | +3.4% | Open. First test is the Oct 29 call, Fixed Income and Data Services line. |
| HOOD | Oct 12 | $108.58 | $98.87 | -8.9% | Open. Wrong if courts or states cut event contracts. Q3 results Oct 27. |
| CEG | Oct 13 | $294.10 | $271.37 | -7.7% | Open. Thesis is private contracts over mandates. No new fact since entry. Q3 Nov 9. |
| ADM | Oct 14 | $82.93 | $82.61 | -0.4% | Open. Exposure is small against crush and biofuels. Q3 Nov 3. |
| ENR | Oct 15 | $22.00 | $21.70 | -1.4% | Open, weak fit. Fuel additive sales are not broken out. Rule text pending. |
| BX | Oct 16 | $107.36 | $106.63 | -0.7% | Open. First test is Q3 results on Oct 22. |
Entry prices are the ones logged in each Idea article (ICE: Oct 9 close; HOOD and CEG: morning quotes; ADM and ENR: Oct 15 close; BX: intraday quote). Equal-weighted average change: -2.6%. Not advice. Not a track record.
This is not advice and it is not a track record. Six Ideas over a few days, no benchmark, no dividends, and entry prices taken at different times of day. A track record needs months and an index to beat. I am keeping the log so that when it is long enough to mean something, you can check my work.
Three things stand out. ICE is the only green bar, and it is the Idea that sits on both sides of the bond-fund toll booth. HOOD fell 4.9% on Friday alone, which is more than half of its drop. CEG is down 7.7% from where I wrote it up, and I do not have a clean explanation for that, so I will not invent one. The thesis for CEG was that private contracts beat mandates. Nothing this week disproved that. A stock can fall while its thesis holds. It can also fall because the thesis is wrong. I cannot tell you which yet.
What to watch next week
Next week is short on dates and long on one. These are the ones I verified against the source on Friday.
- October 20: Robinhood opens its shareholder question window at 2:00 PM PT, ahead of results on October 27.5
- October 22: Blackstone reports third-quarter results with a call at 9:00 AM ET.2 That is the first test of the BX thesis.
- Federal Register notices: The SEC says its 17a-7 comment period runs 60 days after Federal Register publication.6 I did not find that notice, or the two CFTC notices, on Friday, so no comment deadline is set yet.
- The EPA methane proposal: EPA's own timeline says the second part is coming in October, with no date.7
Further out, the rest of the Ideas report: ICE on October 298, ADM on November 39 and Constellation on November 9.10 Objections to the FDA's dairy provisions are due November 12, and New Mexico's methane hearing begins December 1. I did not confirm a date for Energizer, so I am leaving it off.
If you only watch one thing, watch the Federal Register. A proposal is a press release until it has a docket, and the dockets are where the fights start. I will be reading them, and I will tell you what I find.
Sources
- Perplexity Finance, closing quotes Oct. 16, 2026 (perplexity.ai)
- Blackstone IR, Q3 2026 earnings (ir.blackstone.com)
- Federal Register, FR 2026-20848 (govinfo.gov)
- New Mexico Environment Department hearing notice (env.nm.gov)
- Robinhood IR, Q3 2026 date (investors.robinhood.com)
- SEC press release 2026-104 (sec.gov)
- EPA, Oil and Gas Regulatory Timeline (epa.gov)
- ICE IR, Q3 2026 call (ir.theice.com)
- ADM IR, Q3 2026 call (investors.adm.com)
- Constellation IR, Q3 2026 call (constellationenergy.gcs-web.com)
Related analysis
- The SEC Just Proposed Six New Ways Around the Wealth Test
- Congress Stalled, So the CFTC Started Writing the Crypto Rulebook
- Two Circuits Just Disagreed About What a Swap Is
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