The FMR Idea Scorecard

Every day I end the piece with one stock that sits near the rule change. This page keeps score on those ideas in public, winners and losers together, so you can judge how useful they have been.

The score so far

• 13 ideas logged, Oct 11 through Oct 23.
• 8 are above my entry price and 5 are below.
• The simple average is -0.2% since entry. The S&P 500 averaged -1.3% over the same windows, so the average idea is +1.1% versus the market.
• 9 of 13 ideas beat the S&P 500 over their own window.

These windows run from 0 to 10 trading days. That is far too short to show whether any idea was right. Treat this as a log, not as evidence.

Every idea, newest first

• CBOE, logged Oct 23: +0.4% since entry, S&P 500 -0.5% over the same stretch, +1.0% versus the market.
  Cboe at $338.92 (23.2x forward P/E, 8% below 52-week high); North American equities 15.7% of Q2 net revenue; SEC Rule 611 repeal expected Q1 2027 with fee cap and data formula review; risks: options-driven stock, lower fee cap, flow to off-exchange; analyst average target $319.50; Q3 report Oct 30; no price target.
  The article behind it
• CRCL, logged Oct 22: +0.4% since entry, S&P 500 -1.7% over the same stretch, +2.1% versus the market.
  Circle at $85.56 (about 77x FY2026 consensus EPS, 42% below 52-week high); OCC final GENIUS rule left third-party rewards open; 3-month bill 4.08% vs Q2 reserve return 3.5%; Q3 report Nov 4; risks: distribution costs 58.5% of revenue, rate reversal, OCC tightening; no price target.
  The article behind it
• ABT, logged Oct 21: +5.5% since entry, S&P 500 -1.2% over the same stretch, +6.7% versus the market.
  Abbott at 17.8x 2026 adjusted EPS guidance midpoint, 25.6% below 52-week high after announcing Nutrition spin-off by end of 2027 and cutting sales growth outlook; debt $32.6B after Exact Sciences; spin tax rule withdrawal not the thesis; no price target.
  The article behind it
• LNG, logged Oct 20: +5.7% since entry, S&P 500 -0.8% over the same stretch, +6.6% versus the market.
  Largest U.S. LNG exporter at 21.1x trailing EPS, 6.1% below 52-week high, 2026 EBITDA guidance raised to $7.9-8.4B; FERC blanket proposal is a tailwind for uprates, major expansions still need case-specific orders; no price target.
  The article behind it
• UAL, logged Oct 19: +1.3% since entry, S&P 500 -0.4% over the same stretch, +1.7% versus the market.
  Cheapest large U.S. airline at 9.05x trailing EPS, 30.3% below 52-week high; DOT 511(b) delay-code rule is a small tailwind, fuel cost and Oct 20 earnings are the risks; no price target.
  The article behind it
• SWBI, logged Oct 18: -3.0% since entry, S&P 500 -0.4% over the same stretch, -2.6% versus the market.
  Gemtech-owning gun maker at $14.14, 26.0x trailing EPS, debt down 43.8% in a year; suppressor revenue +95.6% in H1 CY2026 but share of sales undisclosed and Q1 growth credited to pistols, MSRs, lever-actions; no price target.
  The article behind it
• VZ, logged Oct 17: -0.3% since entry, S&P 500 -0.4% over the same stretch, +0.1% versus the market.
  Cheapest large U.S. carrier (8.5x 2027 EPS, 13.3% below 52-week high); USAC ruling is a small second-order tailwind for the bill-level surcharge; no price target.
  The article behind it
• BX, logged Oct 16: +9.9% since entry, S&P 500 -1.5% over the same stretch, +11.4% versus the market.
  Largest listed alternative manager sits 35.0% below its 52-week high with fee-related earnings up 20.4% in nine months; FINRA Rule 2210 exception is a small distribution tailwind; Apollo is cheaper; no price target.
  The article behind it
• ENR, logged Oct 15: +2.6% since entry, S&P 500 -1.5% over the same stretch, +4.1% versus the market.
  Energizer's STP additives sit inside an Auto Care segment (Q3 net sales $209.9M vs $190.2M) that avoids a flame-device packaging mandate; imperfect fit because fuel additive revenue is not broken out; risks are immaterial exposure, shrinking batteries margin, rule text; no price target.
  The article behind it
• ADM, logged Oct 14: -3.4% since entry, S&P 500 -1.5% over the same stretch, -1.8% versus the market.
  ADM sells sodium-reduction ingredients and flavor modulation (Nutrition op profit $172M, +51% in Q2); FDA rule removes a recipe barrier in 139 standardized foods; exposure is small against crush and biofuels; no price target.
  The article behind it
• CEG, logged Oct 13: -13.8% since entry, S&P 500 -2.3% over the same stretch, -11.5% versus the market.
  Constellation just signed the private-contract template (890 MW of new nuclear uprates with Google) while FERC kept scarcity visible in PJM auctions; lowest net debt of the group; risks are valuation, uprate execution and a refiled PJM curtailment plan; no price target.
  The article behind it
• HOOD, logged Oct 12: -12.4% since entry, S&P 500 -2.4% over the same stretch, -10.1% versus the market.
  Robinhood sells event contracts through its brokerage and holds a stake in the Rothera exchange, so a clear federal line on event contracts helps both layers; main risk is the Supreme Court and state actions; no price target.
  The article behind it
• ICE, logged Oct 11: +4.2% since entry, S&P 500 -2.4% over the same stretch, +6.6% versus the market.
  ICE is buying MarketAxess (dealer-side platform) and sells evaluated bond pricing that SEC cross-trading proposal leans on, so it sits on both sides of the toll booth; no price target.
  The article behind it

How I keep score

• The entry price is the price I recorded when the piece went out. It is a close or an intraday quote, and the source is kept in my log.
• Current prices are from the close on Oct. 23, 2026. Returns are price only and leave out dividends, fees and taxes.
• For the S&P 500 I use the SPY fund. When my entry was an intraday quote I measure SPY from the prior close, and when my entry was a close I use that same close.
• I add every new idea. I do not remove the ones that went against me.

Read this first

This is not investment advice and I give no price targets. Each idea is a company that sits near a rule change, not a recommendation to buy or sell. Past results do not predict future results, and you can lose money. Do your own research or talk to your adviser before you act.

Last updated Oct. 23, 2026. I refresh this page every Friday.